“Finally Beating Rangers? History Says Celtic Will Lose the Premiership Anyway

History Says Celtic Will Not Win the Scottish Premiership – Even If They Finally Beat Rangers This Week

The Old Firm derby is a game built on momentum, myth, and memory. This week, Celtic have a chance to do something they have failed to do in over three years: beat Rangers in a league match at Ibrox.

The air around Glasgow’s south side is thick with anticipation. Ange Postecoglou’s side look sharp, confident, and tactically evolved. A victory would cut the gap at the top of the table, send a statement of intent, and swing the title pendulum back towards Paradise.

But history offers a chilling warning. Even if Celtic finally clear the Ibrox hurdle this week, the well-documented evidence of the last 25 years suggests they still will not win the Scottish Premiership.

The Ibrox Curse (2020-2023)

Let’s start with the immediate past. Since Rangers returned to the top flight in 2016, Celtic have only won three league matches at Ibrox. The last one? February 2020, a 2-1 win under Neil Lennon.

Since then, through the madness of Covid, the implosion of the 10-in-a-row quest, and the rebuild under Postecoglou, the result has been consistent: no wins. Losses, draws, and painful late equalisers have defined Celtic’s trips to Govan for nearly four years.

History says that a team that cannot win away to its closest title rival does not win leagues. Old Firm away wins are not decorative; they are structural necessities for a championship season.

The Post-New Year Slump (2008-2023)

Even if Celtic win this week, a deeper pattern emerges. Look at every season since the modern Rangers emerged from liquidation in 2012—and even before that. Celtic have a recurring habit of winning the “moral victory” in a winter derby, only to collapse in February and March.

In 2008, they beat Rangers 1-0 at Ibrox in February but lost the title on the final day. In 2011, they won 3-0 at Ibrox in February—then drew three of their next five games and finished second. Under Brendan Rodgers in 2018, Celtic won 3-2 at Ibrox in March, but the title was already secured by a huge margin. The pressure win? Rare.

More recently, under Postecoglou last season, Celtic beat Rangers 3-0 at home in February but then lost at Ibrox in April. The pattern holds: one derby win does not translate into a sustained run.

The Rangers Ibrox Invincibility (1990s-2023)

Statistically, Rangers have lost just 14 league home games to Celtic in the entire history of the Scottish Premiership (since 1998). Fourteen. That is fewer than one per season on average. Even in Celtic’s nine-in-a-row era (2012-2020), they won at Ibrox only twice in eight attempts.

History says that a Celtic win at Ibrox is an outlier, not a turning point. It rarely triggers a title charge. Instead, Rangers tend to react by tightening their defence, grinding out results, and using the loss as fuel for the next phase of the season.

The Psychology of “Finally”

There is also the hidden danger of the word “finally.” If Celtic win this week, the narrative will be one of catharsis. “The hoodoo is broken.” “Postecoglou has figured it out.” That release of pressure can be as dangerous as a defeat. History is littered with teams who celebrated an historic away win only to drop points to St Mirren or Ross County the following week.

Rangers, conversely, operate historically well from a position of wounded pride. Under Steven Gerrard, every Ibrox loss to Celtic (there was only one, in October 2019) was followed by a long unbeaten run that eventually buried Celtic’s hopes.

The Fixture List Doesn’t Lie

Even a victory this week leaves Celtic chasing. As of the current season, Rangers have a game in hand and a lead at the top. History shows that no Celtic team has ever come from more than four points behind at the halfway stage to win the league without winning the majority of their remaining Old Firm games.

Given Celtic have won only one of their last 12 away Old Firm league matches (W1 D3 L8), the statistical probability of winning both remaining derbies is close to zero.

Conclusion: Enjoy the Win, But Don’t Bet the Title on It

Celtic fans should absolutely celebrate if their team finally exorcises the Ibrox demon this week. It would be a massive psychological blow, a brilliant performance, and a sign of genuine progress under Postecoglou.

But history is not a superstition. It is data. And the data says that a single win at Ibrox has almost never launched a Celtic title victory. In fact, over the last 25 years, when Celtic have “finally” beaten Rangers at Ibrox in a league match, they have gone on to lose the league more often than they have won it.

So by all means, enjoy the victory if it comes. Just don’t mistake a battle won for a war over. The history books suggest the Scottish Premiership trophy will still be heading to the Rangers’ cabinet come May.