Tottenham relegation chances shift in new supercomputer update without kicking a ball

Tottenham’s Survival Odds Improve Dramatically After Supercomputer Update Following Saturday’s Results

Tottenham Hotspur’s chances of Premier League relegation have shifted significantly in a new supercomputer prediction, following a favorable set of results on Saturday afternoon.

The weekend started badly for Spurs, with Leeds United beating Burnley 3–1 to open up a nine-point cushion above the drop zone. But a major twist followed when West Ham were thrashed 3–0 at Brentford in a huge result in the battle to beat the drop.

That heavy loss for the Hammers means Spurs now have the chance to climb out of the bottom three—provided they win away at Aston Villa on Sunday.

And with that game in hand at Villa Park still to come, Tottenham’s survival prospects have received a major boost.

Spurs given lifeline thanks to Brentford’s win over West Ham

Roberto De Zerbi finally got his first win as Spurs manager at the third attempt last weekend, beating Wolves at Molineux. That same day, West Ham snatched a late 2–1 victory over Everton at the London Stadium.

Spurs needed favors elsewhere, and they got one courtesy of Brentford, who comfortably beat West Ham at the Gtech Community Stadium.

That result puts Tottenham’s fate back in their own hands with four matches remaining. The task begins with a must-win clash at Aston Villa on Sunday.

According to the latest Opta Analyst supercomputer prediction, Spurs now have a 50.07% chance of being relegated from the Premier League. That’s a notable drop from 60.22% before Saturday’s fixtures.

Meanwhile, West Ham’s relegation odds have risen from 36.84% to 48.84% following their heavy defeat.

For context, Nottingham Forest’s chance of going down is rated as low as 1.02%, while Leeds United sit at just 0.06%.

Can Tottenham beat Aston Villa? Opta weighs in

According to Opta’s match prediction model, Spurs have a 19.1% chance of winning at Villa Park on Sunday evening. Aston Villa are strong favorites at 59.9%, while a draw carries a 21% likelihood.

Interestingly, none of the last 21 Premier League meetings between Villa (7 wins) and Spurs (14) have ended level. In competition history, only Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace—a run of 26 games without a draw between September 1997 and February 2024—has seen a longer streak.

The big question for Spurs fans: would a draw be a good result?

With a home game against Leeds United to follow, picking up four points from those two matches should be the target. After that, Tottenham face a trip to Chelsea and a final-day visit from Everton.

Thanks to Brentford’s win over West Ham, the picture suddenly looks much brighter for the Lilywhites.