The Golden State Warriors could not agree to terms on a rookie-scale contract extension for Jonathan Kuminga, which means the talented forward will become a restricted free agent next summer. The ball is still in Golden State’s court — the Warriors can match any offer sheet — but it’s telling that both sides remain so far apart in negotiations.
Kuminga wanted a full $224 million max contract, in line with Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, and his other high-performing lottery peers. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Kuminga took a while to break through in the Dubs rotation. After some turbulence in his relationship with Steve Kerr early last season, however, Kuminga managed to lock down a full-time rotation role, averaging 16.1 points in 26.3 minutes.
Kuminga is definitely not worth a full max right now, but there’s a world in which he reaches that point. That is why Kuminga is holding out for more money, and why Golden State is happy to wait for proof of concept. If Kuminga takes a meaningful leap this season, both sides can reconvene in the summer. If Kuminga plateaus, the market should reflect that, and Golden State won’t have to pay the max.
That said, there is an outside chance that this relationship spoils. Kuminga is 22 years old with plus-plus athleticism and a ton of theoretical upside. If the Dubs aren’t comfortable with a max contract at season’s end, that won’t prevent other teams from coming in strong in a bid to steal the former lotto pick.
In that instance, Golden State would need to decide between letting Kuminga walk for nothing or overpaying relative to their desired price point.
Or, the Warriors can avoid all of this uncertainty by trading Kuminga for a bonafide All-Star. The perfect candidate could be Cleveland Cavaliers 7-footer Jarrett Allen.
Cleveland’s ill-fitted frontcourt has been an ongoing storyline through two straight postseason runs. There is no doubt about the Cavaliers’ defensive ceiling, nor can we deny the crackling star-power of Donovan Mitchell. It won’t matter, though, if Cleveland can’t space the floor enough to field a competent offense in the spring.
The qualms about the Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley duo are a tad overblown at this point, but Cleveland very strategically inked Allen to an extension that allows him to become trade eligible in the days leading up to the trade deadline. If Kenny Atkinson can’t unlock a new element of Allen’s game, odds are Cleveland will explore alternative paths.
Kuminga is about to get expensive, but he’s the star-ish wing Cleveland lacks next to Mitchell and Darius Garland. We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves when discussing Kuminga’s value — he still has a ways to go developmentally — but the athleticism, physicality, and raw scoring chops are all real. He can hit enough 3s to balance out Cleveland’s starting lineup while benefitting as a play-finisher next to two high-wattage creators. The Cavs’ defense takes a step back, but the hope would be that Kuminga’s offense offsets the difference and plays better in the postseason.
Age is another factor here. Jarrett Allen isn’t ancient at 26 years old, but Kuminga is four years younger. That’s an extra four years of developmental time for Cleveland to invest in. Kevon Looney and Gary Payton are the gravy on top — two tradable expiring contracts who can contribute meaningfully off the bench.
For Golden State, it’s a chance to reinforce the defense with an elite rim protector behind Draymond Green. Suddenly the Warriors run into frontcourt spacing concerns, but Green has generally been good about coexisting with paint-bound bigs in the past. Allen’s vertical explosiveness is something Steph Curry hasn’t played with much during Golden State’s dynastic run. A proper lob threat could bring out something new in Steve Kerr’s playbook.
Dean Wade is more than a throw-in, giving the Warriors a malleable frontcourt piece in the second unit. He can hit 3s, face up a bit, and defend with an edge.
This trade could work out well for all parties involved. It’s riskier for Cleveland than for Golden State, but Kuminga’s immense upside makes it a worthwhile gamble.
