Shane van Gisbergen is no longer an underdog this year.
In preparation for the first NASCAR Cup Series race on the Chicago street course last year, the New Zealander started with 100-to-1 odds to win. Bettors quickly took notice of SVG, and he justified their faith by finishing in first place.
For this Sunday’s race, the Grant Park 165, van Gisbergen’s odds opened at 10-to-1 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Despite these significantly shorter odds, he continues to attract bettors.
By the time the SuperBook began accepting bets outside of Nevada, a bettor in Vegas had already placed a wager on van Gisbergen’s No. 16 Wendy’s Saucy Nuggs Chevrolet. This bet caused the odds to shift to +800, and another bet was placed at these new odds.
Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at the SuperBook, acknowledges the support for Shane van Gisbergen (SVG). A last-lap crash and a 30-second penalty at the Circuit of the Americas on March 23 prevented van Gisbergen from winning all three Xfinity road course races this year. During the Austin race, he led 20 of the 50 laps.
“There’s no doubt” SVG should be among the favorites this week, Salmons told NASCAR.com. He pointed out that van Gisbergen has won two of the three Xfinity Series road course races this year (Portland and Sonoma) and could have won all three.
Jim Sannes, managing editor of digital media at FanDuel Research, understands van Gisbergen’s high position in the Chicago odds but finds his odds too short. “It’s just hard for me to get there, given he’s not in the highest-end equipment, even if we know the driver matters a bit more here,” Sannes said. He estimates SVG’s chances of winning at 5.6% (around +1690 odds), acknowledging this might be too low. He respects the regular Cup Series drivers enough to believe they will improve on their second visit to the track.
A different-looking oddsboard
Beyond van Gisbergen, the Grant Park 165 oddsboard highlights several skilled road racers who are favored over some Cup Series stars from leading teams. Notable drivers like Chris Buescher, AJ Allmendinger, and Michael McDowell have shorter odds compared to prominent names such as Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney.
Here are the current odds from three major sportsbooks – the SuperBook, BetMGM, and DraftKings, as of Wednesday.
Driver | SuperBook | BetMGM | DraftKings |
---|---|---|---|
Kyle Larson | +600 | +600 | +600 |
Tyler Reddick | +600 | +600 | +650 |
Christopher Bell | +600 | +600 | +600 |
Shane van Gisbergen | +700 | +550 | +500 |
Chase Elliott | +1000 | +750 | +800 |
Martin Truex Jr. | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 |
William Byron | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
Chris Buescher | +1400 | +1400 | +1600 |
AJ Allmendinger | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
Michael McDowell | +1600 | +1200 | +1200 |
Ty Gibbs | +1800 | +1600 | +1600 |
Ross Chastain | +3000 | +2500 | +2800 |
Denny Hamlin | +3000 | +2000 | +3000 |
Daniel Suárez | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 |
Kyle Busch | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 |
Ryan Blaney | +4000 | +2500 | +3500 |
Austin Cindric | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 |
Joey Logano | +5000 | +5000 | +4000
|
Driver skill is more heavily weighted on road courses compared to ovals.
“I agree with the betting markets in putting guys like McDowell and Allmendinger ahead of the regular contenders,” said Jim Sannes. He noted that in the past, when there were only two road-course races annually, overall form was a larger factor in predictions. Now, with more road courses, expectations for drivers like McDowell are genuinely higher, and his model aligns with the market on this.
According to Ed Salmons, McDowell is among the drivers attracting early bets at the SuperBook.
The increased emphasis on road course racing in the Cup Series has made the field more competitive. This year’s schedule includes five road/street races, compared to the past when there were just two. “You could pick your six guys that could win the race,” Salmons recalls.
Chase Elliott was often the favorite among this small group, consistently priced as the top contender whenever more than four turns were involved. With more drivers gaining road racing experience, the field has evened out, and Elliott’s odds this week are at 10-to-1.
Around the track
Here are some other drivers to watch on the Chicago streets on Sunday:
– **Christopher Bell**: A poorly-timed caution likely kept Bell from winning this race in 2023. Last year, he was available at +2500, but such favorable odds are not available this year. Despite this, Bell remains one of the most popular bets at the SuperBook this week.
– **Michael McDowell and Kyle Busch**: Jim Sannes highlights both drivers for this week. McDowell wins 7.9% of Sannes’ simulations, making him a play at +1200 or better, while Busch wins 4.6% of the simulations, translating to +2100 or better. Sannes noted, “Not only have they raced really well on road courses the past two years, but both must win if they want to make the playoffs.”
– **Denny Hamlin**: Despite being a longshot, Hamlin continues to attract bettors. Ed Salmons mentioned, “It’s funny, every time we have one of these road course races, literally the first bet is Denny Hamlin at 30-to-1, and it didn’t fail to happen again.” Salmons took similar bets on Hamlin for COTA and Sonoma. As of Wednesday, Hamlin remains at +3000 at the SuperBook.
While bookmakers and bettors have more road racing data, including from last year’s race on this course, expect odds to shift on Saturday based on qualifying and practice sessions. “Obviously where they qualify and what practice looks like is going to dictate the odds really strongly,” Salmons said.